other Applets

Wheel of fortune

Info
Balance € 300,-
Method

Statistics

Expected gain:
Maximum gain
Possible:
Observed:
Maximum loss
Possible:
Observed:
Average gain:

Utility functions

Power utiliy:   Logarithmic utility: 0.000000
Exponential utility: 0.000000

Optional

Multiple turns

Motivation

Possible profits and losses are not known at the stock market, which makes investment decisions quite difficult. The wheel of fortune is a simple way to generate investment strategies.

Instructions

At the beginning you have at your disposal, which you can bet on any of these three colors: red, blue and yellow. The probability for each color to be choosen is different as well as their respective profit-multipliers:

red1/2wager x 3
blue1/3wager x 2
yellow1/6wager x 6

The stakes are lost every time; with a little luck, however, you might win more than you have wagered!

You control your bets (either a percentage of your balance or a fixed amount thereof) with the "+" and "–" bottons or simply via dragging the respective bar. You should not perhaps bet everything at once lest you loose all of it. Try to gain as high a fortune as possible in as little turns as possible!

Strategies

Here are some suggestions for possible strategies offered:
  • Does it make sense to bet EVERYTHING on yellow? Mind the fact that you can gain 600% of the seeded money.
  • Think of the probability of each color. Would it make sense to bid everything on red, because it's most likely to win?
  • How much risk can you take? Higher stakes may get you higher profit.
  • Assumed that you MUST bet all your money: How do you bid if you want to make sure to lose no money?
  • Smart investors split their money on several colors. What percentage of money will you back on which color?
  • Does it make sense to place on blue? Red has a higher probability and does also offer more profit.
  • Think on a long-term basis. A slow growth of wealth may be better than a fast one, as long as it is safer.
  • Do you think there is a perfect strategy?

Literature

  • David G. Luenberger: Investment Science, Oxford University Press (1998), ISBN 0-19-510809-4, Chapter 15 (Optimal Portfolio Growth).

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